Arizona Housing Market Analysis - July 2024
The Arizona housing market in July 2024 presents a nuanced picture, reflecting both stability and shifts in various key metrics. This analysis delves into the current state of the market, comparing year-over-year (YoY) changes to provide a comprehensive understanding of the trends and dynamics at play.
Median Sales and List Prices
The median sales price for homes in Arizona stands at $444,400, marking a slight decrease of 1.5% YoY. This decline suggests a modest cooling in the market, potentially offering opportunities for buyers. Conversely, the median list price is $462,600, showing a marginal decrease of 0.3% YoY. This indicates that while sellers are adjusting their expectations, the list prices remain relatively stable.
Price Per Square Foot
Examining the price per square foot, the median price is $257, which has increased by 1.8% YoY. This rise indicates a continued demand for space, even as overall prices show slight declines. The median list price per square foot is $266, reflecting a more significant increase of 4.2% YoY. This suggests that sellers are confident in the value of their properties on a per-square-foot basis.
Sales and Inventory
The number of homes sold in July 2024 is 8,202, representing a 4.1% increase YoY. This uptick in sales activity indicates a healthy demand in the market. However, pending sales are slightly down by 0.2% YoY, with a total of 9,248 pending transactions. This slight decline could be indicative of a stabilizing market.
New listings have seen a notable increase of 4.6% YoY, with 9,211 new properties entering the market. This influx of new listings contributes to the overall inventory, which has surged by 34.1% YoY to 26,382 homes. The significant rise in inventory is a critical factor, as it provides more options for buyers and may contribute to the stabilization of prices.
Market Dynamics
The months of supply, a key indicator of market balance, has increased dramatically by 70.0% YoY to 3.20 months. This substantial rise suggests a shift towards a more balanced market, moving away from the seller's market conditions that have prevailed in recent years.
The median days on market is now 53 days, up by 11.0% YoY. This increase indicates that homes are taking longer to sell, which could be a result of the higher inventory levels and more cautious buyer behavior.
Sale to List Ratios and Price Adjustments
The average sale to list ratio is 98.3%, showing a slight decrease of 0.3% YoY. This ratio indicates that homes are selling very close to their list prices, reflecting a relatively stable market. However, the percentage of homes sold above list price has dropped by 5.3% YoY to 15.8%, suggesting that bidding wars are becoming less common.
Price drops have increased by 8.7% YoY, with 33.5% of listings experiencing price reductions. This trend indicates that sellers are adjusting their expectations in response to market conditions. Additionally, the percentage of homes going off market within two weeks has decreased by 13.6% YoY to 24.6%, further highlighting the shift towards a more balanced market.
Conclusion
In summary, the Arizona housing market in July 2024 is characterized by a mix of stability and adjustment. While median sales and list prices show slight declines, the price per square foot has increased, indicating sustained demand for space. Sales activity remains robust, but the significant rise in inventory and months of supply points to a more balanced market. Sellers are adjusting their expectations, as evidenced by increased price drops and longer days on market. Overall, these trends suggest a market that is stabilizing, offering opportunities for both buyers and sellers.
